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MyTrendTimer Financial Market Trend Timing report

Market Timing / Quantitative Analysis on major indexes.
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April 23rd, Bullish Trend (Buy Signal)
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 500
Standard and Poors 100
USD to CHF
April 23rd, Bearish Trend (Sell Signal)
Swiss Market Index SMI
 
Older reports
 
April 16th, 2018
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
USD to CHF
 
April 4th, 2018
NASDAQ Composite
Dow Jones Industrial
Standard and Poors 100
Standard and Poors 500
Swiss Market Index SMI
USD to CHF
 
 
Archived reports
 
2005 Archive Page
2006 Archive Page
2007 Archive Page
2008 Archive Page
2009 Archive Page
2010 Archive Page
2011 Archive Page
2012 Archive Page
2013 Archive Page
2014 Archive Page
2015 Archive Page
2016 Archive Page
2017 Archive Page
2018 Archive Page
News on MyTrendTimer Market Trend Timing report
   
A brief history with the latest developments and signals issued.

   
   
2006  
January 6th
  • Year 2006 started with a rally on most tracked equities. All the signals have a bullish trend (nothing new since November 23rd, 2005).
January 11th
  • Coverage initiated on the Gold Ounce. The purpose to cover a commodity/commodities is diversification. The first signal is a buy signal but be careful because the price is at an historically high level !
January 19th
  • A sell signal is issued on the USD to CHF (sell price is 1.28145, +6.14%)
February 9th
  • A buy signal is issued on the USD to CHF (buy price is 1.30240, +1.63%)
February 22nd
  • MyTrendTimer v0.99.25 with integrated log4j is out. New classes were added to ease future developments.
March 1st
  • Layout of the site changed in order to clearly identify what should be bought/sold.
March 8th
  • MyTrendTimer 0.99.30 is out. The produced reports are well-formed and valid XHTML 1.1 in order to have better interoperability.
March 29th
  • MyTrendTimer 0.99.40 is out. The produced reports are not anymore standalone html documents. The website does not use frames anymore but PHP instead.
April 19th
  • MyTrendTimer 0.99.50 is out. Added some statistics. Last 5/20 quotes are used to compute short/medium term statistics.
 
  • JavaDoc (API documentation) is available on the website. (in the About menu)
 
  • A sell signal is issued on the USD to CHF (sell price is 1.2712, -2.40%)
May 3rd
May 17th
  • Major indexes tumble for sixth day (inflation, oil, currencies and commodities are the main concerns). According to the model, most indices have (still ?) a bullish trend.
 
  • A sell signal is issued on Russell 2000 (sell price is 725.85, +10.61%)
May 18th
  • A sell signal is issued on Topix (sell price is 4'636.01, +49.67%)
May 22nd
  • A sell signal is issued on Nasdaq Composite (sell price is 2'172.86, +0.16%)
May 26th
  • A sell signal is issued on Swiss Market Index SMI (sell price is 7'679.47, +35.34%)
 
  • A sell signal is issued on DJ Stoxx 50 (sell price is 3'395.11, +25.49%)
 
  • MyTrendTimer 0.99.60 is out. The produced reports have now a free text comment. This is used to have a weekly market update on each followed index/asset.
June 6th
  • A sell signal is issued on Swisscanto Diversification (sell price is 155.75, +15.63%)
June 14th
  • MyTrendTimer 0.99.70 is out. Added some statistics. Quotes of current and previous years are used.
June 14th
  • A sell signal is issued on SP100 (sell price is 563.94, -3.1%)
 
  • A sell signal is issued on SP500 (sell price is 1'230.04, +0.77%)
July 18th
  • A sell signal is issued on Dow Jones Industrial DJX (sell price is 10'795, +0.75%)
July 19th
  • Added a mailing list subscription to ease change follow-up.
August 1st
  • A buy signal is issued on Swiss Market Index SMI (buy price is 7944.10, +3.45%)
August 2nd
  • A buy signal is issued on Dow Jones Industrial DJX (buy price is 11'160, +3.38%)
August 8th
  • A buy signal is issued on DJ Stoxx 50 (buy price is 3421.50, +0.78%)
 
  • A buy signal is issued on SP100 (buy price is 586.13, +3.93%)
August 14th
  • A buy signal is issued on Swisscanto Diversification (buy price is 159.60, +2.47%)
August 16th
  • User registration to mailing lists can be done here
August 21st
  • A buy signal is issued on SP500 (buy price is 1297.52, +5.49%)
 
  • A buy signal is issued on Russell 2000 (buy price is 705.33, -2.83%)
August 29th
  • 1st Anniversary of the website.
September 15th
  • A buy signal is issued on Nasdaq (buy price is 2'235.59, +2.89%)
September 21st
  • A buy signal is issued on USD to CHF (buy price is 1.2512, -1.57%)
September 22nd
  • A sell signal is issued on USD to CHF (sell price is 1.23455, -1.33%)
September 28th
  • A buy signal is issued on USD to CHF (buy price is 1.24825, +1.11%)
October 11th
  • MyTrendTimer 0.99.8n is out. Added some statistics. Monthly and yearly performance of the asset is displayed. Average performance by month is available in order to identify which are the good and the bad months. The Halloween Indicator, 'Sell in May and Go Away' and other seasonal effect in stock returns can be checked.
November 21th
  • A sell signal is issued on USD to CHF (sell price is 1.24115, -0.57%)
December 29th
  • Year 2006 was a good year for the major stock indexes. Dow Jones was up 16%, Nasdaq 10%, SP100 16%, SP500 14%, Russel2000 18%, DJStoxx50 11% and the SMI 16%. Best performer was the Gold Once with a boost of 22% ! On the other hand, Topix was down 19% and the USD (to CHF) lost 7%.
 
  • The model performed quite well on those soaring major indexes : the signal was bullish for almost all the year. Mid May, the markets had a sharp and fast correction. (consolidation ?) Sell signals were issued. The recovery was quite fast and buy signals were issued in August. The buy price was in average a couple percent above the sell price... In other words, during year 2006, the "buy and hold" strategy outperformed the model. This is because the markets quickly rebounded from their mid May correction. The model still has a good risk-adjusted return.
 
  • For the alternative investments, the model was bullish during the whole year on the Gold Ounce, despite high volatility. Other good point for the model : the Japanese market was sold mid May and the current level is well below the sell price.
 
  • Bad point for the model : Forex market. Operations generated for the U.S. Dollar (versus Swiss Franc) were quite bad. In September, 3 operations were generated during the same week... The model may not be well adapted for the forex. We will keep the USD vs CHF for a while to see what's happening.
   
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