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| August 14th, Bearish Trend (Sell Signal) |
| USD to CHF |
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MyTrendTimer :
DJ Stoxx 50
of
December 19, 2006 |
| Weekly Comment about this asset/index |
| Bundesbank President Professor Axel Weber signalled in a newspaper interview last Friday that the European Central Bank could continue to raise its key interest rates next year.
On Thursday, Ifo one of Germany's leading economic institutes forecast that the ECB rate would remain stable at its current rate of 3.5% in 2007 and 2008.
In answer to a question from the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung whether further rate hikes were on the agenda next year, Weber, who is a member of the ECB's Governing Council representing the biggest economy in the Eurozone, signalled strongly that it could well be the case.
"We have made clear that monetary policy is continuing to stimulate the economy and that key rates are still at a low level," Weber said.
The ECB has hiked its key interest rate six times since December 2005.
Following the early December hike to 3.5%, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet while saying that rates were still low, was careful not to signal a rate rise in early 2007.
While analysts differ in their forecasts, the majority predict a rise to 3.75% in March 2007. A minority even see the rate rising to 4% by mid-2007.
Asked by the newspaper whether rates could rise beyond 3.75%, Weber refused to be specific. "I don't want to speculate about concrete monetary policy measures," he said.
"We must be ready to act. In order to anchor inflation expectations at a level compatible with price stability it is necessary to counter inflation risks decisively," he added.
Among the upward risks were a possible oil price increases, tax rises and potentially strong wage demands. |
|
| Financial Instrument | Value |
| Instrument Name | DJ Stoxx 50 |
| Symbol | STOXX50 |
| Currency | EUR |
| Underlying instrument | iShares DJ STOXX 50 (EUN) |
|
| Trend/Signal | Value |
| Current Trend/Signal |
Bullish (last signal was a Buy)
|
| Strenght | 1.7 |
| Date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 19.12.2006 |
|
| Generated Operations Chart |
 |
|
| Generated Operations |
| Nature | Date (dd.MM.yyyy) | # Days previous op. | Quote | Result previous op. |
| Buy | 14.03.2002 | 000 | 3'644.00 | +0.00 |
| Sell | 24.04.2002 | 040 | 3'545.00 | -2.72 |
| Buy | 09.06.2003 | 411 | 2'375.02 | -33.00 |
| Sell | 08.07.2004 | 395 | 2'656.29 | +11.84 |
| Buy | 20.09.2004 | 074 | 2'705.50 | +1.85 |
| Sell | 29.05.2006 | 616 | 3'395.11 | +25.49 |
| Buy | 08.08.2006 | 071 | 3'421.50 | +0.78 |
| Out | 18.12.2006 | 132 | 3'721.39 | +8.76 |
|
| Return and result of the differents strategies |
| Time Weighted Return of | Value (over the Period) |
| Buy and Hold | -21.41 |
| Model Buy and Hold | +2.12 |
| Model Long Only | +48.50 |
| Model Short Only | +31.23 |
| Model Long and Short | +94.89 |
|
| Time Weighted Return of | Value (Annualized) |
| Buy and Hold | -4.43 |
| Model Buy and Hold | +0.44 |
| Model Long Only | +10.04 |
| Model Short Only | +6.47 |
| Model Long and Short | +19.64 |
|
| Model OverPerf vs Model Buy and Hold | Value (Annualized) |
| Model Long vs Model Buy and Hold | +9.60 |
| Model Short vs Model Buy and Hold | +6.03 |
| Model Long and Short vs Model Buy and Hold | +19.20 |
|
| Model OverPerf vs Buy and Hold | Value (Annualized) |
| Model Long vs Buy and Hold | +14.47 |
| Model Short vs Buy and Hold | +10.90 |
| Model Long and Short vs Buy and Hold | +24.07 |
|
|
| Various statistical indicators for this asset |
| Last 20 quotes Statistics | Value |
| Mean quote | 3'649.95 |
| Variance | 2'495.49 |
| Standard Deviation | 49.95 |
| Lowest quote | 3'566.38 |
| Highest quote | 3'731.90 |
| Median | 3'649.14 |
| Max Daily Loose percent | -1.49 |
| Max Daily Gain percent | 1.06 |
| Simple Perf. | 0.49 |
|
| Last 5 quotes Statistics | Value |
| Mean quote | 3'695.14 |
| Variance | 1'080.26 |
| Standard Deviation | 32.87 |
| Lowest quote | 3'650.28 |
| Highest quote | 3'731.90 |
| Median | 3'691.09 |
| Max Daily Loose percent | -0.28 |
| Max Daily Gain percent | 0.72 |
| Simple Perf. | 1.95 |
|
| Previous year Statistics | Value |
| Mean quote | 3'049.28 |
| Variance | 32'001.71 |
| Standard Deviation | 178.89 |
| Lowest quote | 2'763.16 |
| Highest quote | 3'370.84 |
| Median | 3'067.00 |
| Max Daily Loose percent | -1.86 |
| Max Daily Gain percent | 2.24 |
| Simple Perf. | 20.70 |
| First quote | 2'774.77 |
| Last quote | 3'349.10 |
|
| Current year Statistics | Value |
| Mean quote | 3'493.56 |
| Variance | 14'876.92 |
| Standard Deviation | 121.97 |
| Lowest quote | 3'204.35 |
| Highest quote | 3'739.41 |
| Median | 3'471.88 |
| Max Daily Loose percent | -2.94 |
| Max Daily Gain percent | 2.13 |
| Simple Perf. | 11.12 |
| First quote | 3'349.10 |
| Last quote | 3'721.39 |
|
| Seasonal Return by Month for this asset |
| Month | Cumulated TWR Return. | #Month | Average TWR Return |
| January | -9.76 | 7 | -1.39 |
| February | -0.85 | 7 | -0.12 |
| March | -2.09 | 7 | -0.30 |
| April | +15.36 | 7 | +2.19 |
| May | -10.74 | 7 | -1.53 |
| June | -7.62 | 7 | -1.09 |
| July | -6.43 | 7 | -0.92 |
| August | -5.12 | 7 | -0.73 |
| September | -22.93 | 7 | -3.28 |
| October | +30.51 | 7 | +4.36 |
| November | +2.49 | 7 | +0.36 |
| December | +3.05 | 7 | +0.44 |
|
| TWR Return by Year for this asset |
| Year | TWR Return. |
| 2000 | -3.55 |
| 2001 | -18.57 |
| 2002 | -35.60 |
| 2003 | +11.08 |
| 2004 | +4.30 |
| 2005 | +20.70 |
| 2006 | +11.12 |
|
| Year 2000 to 2003 Monthly performance |
| Month | Year | Performance |
| January | 2000 | -4.75 |
| February | 2000 | +8.49 |
| March | 2000 | +3.27 |
| April | 2000 | +1.07 |
| May | 2000 | -3.09 |
| June | 2000 | -2.24 |
| July | 2000 | +0.60 |
| August | 2000 | +3.23 |
| September | 2000 | -4.50 |
| October | 2000 | +3.83 |
| November | 2000 | -7.17 |
| December | 2000 | -1.25 |
| January | 2001 | -0.18 |
| February | 2001 | -10.20 |
| March | 2001 | -2.69 |
| April | 2001 | +7.96 |
| May | 2001 | -1.16 |
| June | 2001 | -4.45 |
| July | 2001 | -3.42 |
| August | 2001 | -7.39 |
| September | 2001 | -8.67 |
| October | 2001 | +4.49 |
| November | 2001 | +3.03 |
| December | 2001 | +4.12 |
| January | 2002 | -3.85 |
| February | 2002 | -0.42 |
| March | 2002 | +3.57 |
| April | 2002 | -5.02 |
| May | 2002 | -4.34 |
| June | 2002 | -8.77 |
| July | 2002 | -10.40 |
| August | 2002 | -1.13 |
| September | 2002 | -14.62 |
| October | 2002 | +10.55 |
| November | 2002 | +4.07 |
| December | 2002 | -9.96 |
| January | 2003 | -6.85 |
| February | 2003 | -2.94 |
| March | 2003 | -3.07 |
| April | 2003 | +10.47 |
| May | 2003 | -0.13 |
| June | 2003 | +3.45 |
| July | 2003 | +3.28 |
| August | 2003 | +0.22 |
| September | 2003 | -3.74 |
| October | 2003 | +6.32 |
| November | 2003 | +1.15 |
| December | 2003 | +3.63 |
|
| Year 2004 to 200n Monthly performance |
| Month | Year | Performance |
| January | 2004 | +1.35 |
| February | 2004 | +1.94 |
| March | 2004 | -3.10 |
| April | 2004 | +1.67 |
| May | 2004 | -1.42 |
| June | 2004 | +0.69 |
| July | 2004 | -1.39 |
| August | 2004 | -1.14 |
| September | 2004 | +1.85 |
| October | 2004 | +0.88 |
| November | 2004 | +1.69 |
| December | 2004 | +1.36 |
| January | 2005 | +1.60 |
| February | 2005 | +2.60 |
| March | 2005 | -0.92 |
| April | 2005 | -1.70 |
| May | 2005 | +4.16 |
| June | 2005 | +3.47 |
| July | 2005 | +3.39 |
| August | 2005 | -0.80 |
| September | 2005 | +4.72 |
| October | 2005 | -1.82 |
| November | 2005 | +1.96 |
| December | 2005 | +2.59 |
| January | 2006 | +2.90 |
| February | 2006 | +0.68 |
| March | 2006 | +1.09 |
| April | 2006 | +0.83 |
| May | 2006 | -5.01 |
| June | 2006 | +0.59 |
| July | 2006 | +2.08 |
| August | 2006 | +2.14 |
| September | 2006 | +0.80 |
| October | 2006 | +3.33 |
| November | 2006 | -1.83 |
| December | 2006 | +3.31 |
|
| Quotes Used | Value |
| Quote File Used | /local/java/TrendTimer/data/DJSTOXX_20061219.csv |
| # of Quotes | 1741 |
| File first date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 03.01.2000 |
| File first quote | 4'735.00 |
| File last date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 18.12.2006 |
| File last quote | 3'721.39 |
| First data considered (dd.MM.yyyy) | 25.05.2000 |
| First data considered | 4'825.00 |
| Min. Quote date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 12.03.2003 |
| Min. Quote value | 1'909.05 |
| Max Quote date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 04.09.2000 |
| Max Quote value | 5'198.00 |
| Max daily drop date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 22.07.2002 |
| Max Daily Drop percent | -7.32 |
| Max daily gain date (dd.MM.yyyy) | 11.10.2002 |
| Max daily Gain percent | 9.21 |
|
| Operations Statistics | Value |
| # Generated operations | 8 |
| Avg # op. by year | 1.66 |
| # Days | 1739 |
| # Days in years | 4.83 |
| Biggest loose (Long only) | -2.72 |
| Min # days uninvested (before Buy operation) | 71 |
| Max # days uninvested (before Buy operation) | 411 |
| Min # days invested (before Sell operation) | 40 |
| Max # days invested (before Sell operation) | 616 |
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| Disclaimer |
| All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Prior to execution of any security trade, you are advised to consult your authorized financial advisor to verify the accuracy of all information. Neither MyTrendTimer nor anyone is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. You can freely redistribute the information found herein as long as this disclaimer is included unmodified. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Some indexes, benchmarks or brand names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. |
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